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Trading organizations were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared to December 2025, omitting any seasonal trading. Information are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Almost a 3rd (31%) of trading businesses reported that their turnover had reduced in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

However, the motions are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The industries with the highest percentage reporting that turnover decreased in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities industry (52%, which is a 21 portion point rise from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, entertainment and entertainment industry (40%) Approximately 16% of trading organizations reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point increase compared to December 2025.

For trading organizations with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had decreased, which was broadly stable compared to December and January 2025. More than one in 5 (23%) companies reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 percentage points compared to December 2025. Normally, the percentage of organizations reporting that their turnover increased associated to the size of the service.

The exception to this was the proportion for businesses with 250 or more employees, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading businesses were asked how they anticipate their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be used to predict how business's turnover will really change once that calendar month concludes.

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Patterns in between anticipated turnover and real turnover have broadly moved in the same instructions, the movements for expectations tend to be larger. Care must be taken when analyzing expectations concerns, as the workers reacting on behalf of services might not have full oversight of all of their company's future expectations.

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More than one in 5 (21%) trading organizations expect their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point increase from February 2026 however was broadly steady compared with expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading services anticipating an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the percentage that reported an actual increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a small pessimism in companies expectations.

Nevertheless, the trends have broadly followed each other since the concerns were introduced in April 2022. The outcomes for March 2026 follow the trend from previous years, with the percentage of services expecting turnover to increase peaking after a reduction in January. Bigger services were more most likely to anticipate a boost in turnover in March, with the percentage varying from 20% for businesses with 0 to 9 employees, to 42% for services with 100 to 249 workers.

For presentational purposes, some response choices have actually been gotten rid of. Data are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave. Caution needs to be taken when analyzing expectations questions, as the workers responding on behalf of services may not have full oversight of all of their business's future expectations. "." represents data not yet available.

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The percentage of trading businesses that anticipated a decline in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported an actual decline in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of services anticipating turnover to decrease for a particular month ahead of time has remained significantly lower than the proportion of companies reporting a real reduction because month since April 2022.

However, expectations for turnover to reduce have consistently followed the same trend, as real reported turnover reduces throughout this time. Trading businesses were asked what challenges, if any, were impacting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading organizations reported that financial uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly steady with early January 2026.

For trading organizations with 10 or more employees, expense of labour was the most frequently reported obstacle, at 36%. Companies with 10 to 49 staff members were more likely to report expense of labour as a difficulty than organizations with 250 or more workers (37%, compared with 20%). One in five (20%) trading organizations with 10 or more workers showed that they were not presently experiencing any turnover difficulties in early February 2026.